Weigh the story
Provenance is not a romantic extra. It is the part of the item that can be checked by someone other than you. A story that names a person, a place and a date can be tested. A story that cannot be tested is decoration, however charming.
- Who obtained it, when, and in what circumstances — a signing, a set, a stage door, an estate.
- Whether the person who obtained it can still be asked, or left documentation that can be read.
- Whether the chain since then is continuous, or has a gap where the piece could have been swapped.
- Whether the certificate, if there is one, pictures the actual item rather than describing a category of item.
On which point: a certificate is not evidence of authenticity, it is evidence of an opinion. Whose opinion is the whole question, and are autograph certificates of authenticity worth anything deals with it directly.